Adios

We have finally reached the end of reviewing the main theories for the Classic Maya collapse! Admittedly, before I got reading in depth, I was always biased towards the drought hypothesis as it seemed like a convenient explanation for such a societal and political change. I initially believed that drought triggered a chain of destructive events beginning with crop failure that eventually led to the demise of an already out-of-balance cultural system. The series of severe droughts most likely placed a great deal of stress on the elites, in turn affecting their systems and leading them to fight over tributary domains, as food and water resources continued to diminish with the advent of a natural disaster. Socio-political upheaval combined with environmental degradation that may have resulted from deforestation in the face of a hungry population ultimately led to a crumbling society.

However after reviewing all this in further detail, I now believe that they did not overshoot the carrying capacity, and while there may have been deforestation (some of which was necessary in order to build the large cities and construct magnificent monuments), with some areas more deforested than others, I do not think that this could have been a factor leading towards their collapse (McNeil, 2011). The evidence towards a severe drying trend is unequivocal, yet it did not seem to affect all sites. The drought theory still remains controversial among many archaeologists who advocate a blend of overpopulation, a weak economic base, and an internecine struggle for control among the elites, with a subsequent dramatic fragmentation of political power, as the main factors for causing the collapse (Aimers, 2011). McAnany and Negron also reject the drought hypothesis as the ‘prime mover’ of societal change.

After speaking to Dr Elizabeth Graham, an archaeologist and lecturer here at UCL, I think that economic change had a great role to play in the collapse. A bad economy can ruin a society, even today. We have seen that drought affected the Aztecs and Toltecs too, but their demise was ultimately attributed to other factors. If they were able to deal with the drought conditions, surely the Maya, who were the first complex Mesoamerican civilisation to exist were perfectly able to do so too, just as many societies can today. Yet in times of economic stress, divine rulers would not have been as resilient to a drought, adding to the socio-political problems.

 Economic change could also potentially explain the differential abandonment of dynastic centres that lasted over 125 years. As population declined in the south, the north experienced a large influx of population- at least temporarily. The first major dynasties to dissolve were those that ruled over landlocked centres like Calakmul. Those located strategically near the coast and major waterways such as Tulum (on the Caribbean coast of modern-day Mexico) continued to flourish well into the Postclassic period. Perhaps the coastal populations were the last to collapse because they were near to trading ports, and because they had more accessible water resources, unlike Copan and Calakmul that sat astride permanent water sources, which were highly dependent on rainfall. This leads me on to my final point. Did the end of the divine rulership actually qualify as an apocalyptic collapse, as identified by some movie producers (e.g. Mel Gibson) and writers (e.g. Jared Diamond), or did the so-called ‘failed’ civilisation just transform? After all, there are still 7 million descendants inhabiting the Yucatan peninsula today. 

 A prime example is Mel Gibson who produced the movie ‘Apocalypto’, in which he depicted the Maya in an unflattering manner. While it received good reviews, it was an extremely inaccurate portrayal of the rulers and priests as blood-thirsty savages (I have learnt this only after post 9!!). So if you do end up watching it, do not take it too seriously!

Nevertheless, that is another matter. We cannot ignore the fact that the civilisation was reduced to a mere 3% of its original size and the role of climate change as a destabilising factor should not be dismissed. Climate has long played a role in the rise and fall of many civilisations, including the disappearance of the Anasazi people of the American Southwest between ~1275 and 1300, as well that of the Akkadian Empire in Mesopotamia some 4,200 years ago, and the Mochica culture in Peru around 1,500 years ago, to name but a few (American Scientist, 2005). All these societal collapses have been attributed to droughts, evidenced by the increasingly precise high-resolution records of palaeo-climate.


You may be wondering how this is relevant for us today. Well, owing to the complexity of the climate system and consequently the significant uncertainties in our knowledge of climate change, one of the many challenges facing climate scientists and policy makers is predicting future impacts. Given current circumstances of global warming, it is of real interest to contemporary societies to understand how they can overcome the uncertainty in climate change in the coming years, using the past as a guide toward a better future. Ultimately, we are more interested in what changes will occur and how these changes will translate into impacts that matter to humans. There is already enough evidence that many of the potential impacts of global environmental change carry severe risks that can even be catastrophic. Yet knowing how ancient cultures responded to such changes may give us valuable lessons that can help improve humanity's future responses and policy-making. One thing we can learn from the Maya collapse, in particular, is the importance of water conservation and efficient management. Applying such principals of decision analysis to elements of current understanding and using models of virtual reality therefore seems like the most viable option to try and mitigate risks of climate change as soon as possible, to avoid the same fate as the Maya and other great cultures in human history. 

On a concluding note, I would like to thank you all for reading my blog! I have thoroughly enjoyed my time here on the blogosphere. I would also be greatly interested to hear your views on what caused the Classic Maya 'collapse', so feel free to comment! Adios for now amigos. 

References:

McAnany, P.A. and T.G. Negron (2010) 'Bellicose rulers and climatological peril?' In: McAnany, P.A. and N. Yoffee (eds) Questioning Collapse, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 142-175